Friday, June 29, 2007

Exhumed

I've spent the past year working as a Visiting Professor in the department of linguistics at the University of Illinois. I was only hired on a temporary basis--for a year--but the department wanted someone to do what I do (phonetics) permanently, beginning this Fall. So they held a job search in November and December of 2006, to which I dutifully (and hopefully) submitted myself. Even though most everybody here in Champaign/Urbana seemed to like me and what I do when I'm not playing with baseball statistics, I did not get the job. I was informed of this around the 30th of December.

In the midst of the dark and lonely New Year's that followed, I decided to re-visit retrosheet.org, in a half-hearted attempt to amuse myself. There I discovered that the Retrosheet squad had, after many years, finally posted the play-by-play data for the 1993-1998 seasons. Since I first got the idea for Bases Produced--back in October of 1998--I've been collecting play-by-play recaps of all major league games from various websites like espn.com, cbssportsline.com, etc., so that addition to the retrosheet database meant that my bridge into the Bases Produced statistical past was effectively complete.

With surprisingly little to hope for in terms of a future career in linguistics, I dedicated myself at the beginning of January to finally working through the data that retrosheet has provided the world (for free!) and calculating BP stats for as far back into the past as I was able. Back when the I was still teaching classes in the Spring, that meant setting aside one day a week for nothing but baseball stats. At that pace, I was on schedule to finish my historical quest some time in February of next year.

At the end of May, though, the linguistics department here did me another favor by kicking me out of my office for the summer. That unexpected move did in my good intentions of balancing out my summer days between setting up phonetics experiments in the mornings and working on BP stats at night. So I decided to do the next best thing and split my summer in two by finishing up my historical BP project in the first half and working on phonetics research in the second.

I am now happy to say that the first half of that deal with my personal devils is now done. I finished hacking through the last available year of the Retrosheet play-by-play database last Wednesday evening, and have now posted seasonal BP stats for every major league season from 1957 until the present day. Oh--except for the 1999 season, for which I do have the raw data but not yet a means of parsing it into something meaningful. I hope to have something more to say about all that after this weekend.

In the meantime, I would like to share with you one of the primary fruits of my labor. Behold the major league leaders in Bases Produced from 1957 to 2007:



YearNameTeamBPBBPRBPTBPBP1BP2BP3BP4
1957
Mickey Mantle
nyy
743
461
19
263
319
200
130
94
1958
Willie Mays
sfo
712
426
34
252
284
196
135
97
1959
Hank Aaron
mib
711
433
10
268
266
199
130
116
1960
Eddie Mathews
mib
677
396
7
274
252
177
134
114
1961
Norm Cash
det
841
488
11
342
327
202
178
134
1962
Frank Robinson
cin
796
467
23
306
295
222
141
138
1963
Hank Aaron
mib
738
436
31
271
274
201
137
126
1964
Ron Santo
chc
681
419
7
255
271
166
131
113
1965
Billy Williams
chc
712
423
13
276
270
190
143
109
1966
Frank Robinson
bal
713
464
9
240
279
180
132
122
1967
Carl Yastrzemski
bos
744
455
11
278
284
187
153
120
1968
Billy Williams
chc
656
371
5
280
235
169
152
100
1969
Harmon Killebrew
min
777
474
8
295
303
187
148
139
1970
Billy Williams
chc
767
447
10
310
279
200
159
129
1971
Joe Torre
stl
780
419
8
353
297
188
158
137
1972
Billy Williams
chc
717
416
4
297
259
181
156
121
1973
Joe Morgan
cin
714
395
70
249
279
236
120
79
1974
Johnny Bench
cin
708
398
7
303
257
181
142
128
1975
Joe Morgan
cin
747
388
71
288
298
226
130
93
1976
Joe Morgan
cin
740
387
63
290
266
223
140
111
1977
George Foster
cin
775
454
8
313
263
198
166
148
1978
Jim Rice
bos
767
469
7
291
276
187
163
141
1979
Don Baylor
cal
744
415
24
305
268
188
148
140
1980
Ken Singleton
bal
686
376
1
309
270
168
145
103
1981
Mike Schmidt
phi
517
305
12
200
189
134
103
91
1982
Robin Yount
mil
714
422
18
274
265
186
146
117
1983
Dale Murphy
atl
705
410
34
261
270
168
147
120
1984
Dwight Evans
bos
721
435
3
283
286
200
129
106
1985
Don Mattingly
nyy
761
428
5
328
269
191
157
144
1986
Don Mattingly
nyy
740
442
2
296
292
189
145
114
1987
Dwight Evans
bos
733
417
6
310
274
195
141
123
1988
Mike Greenwell
bos
757
409
18
330
288
202
148
119
1989
Kevin Mitchell
sfo
702
435
4
263
248
185
144
125
1990
Cecil Fielder
det
703
434
2
267
254
174
144
131
1991
Frank Thomas
chw
725
448
4
273
317
176
123
109
1992
Frank Thomas
chw
753
434
9
310
312
200
125
116
1993
Barry Bonds
sfo
814
493
34
287
309
221
161
123
1994
Frank Thomas
chw
629
402
2
225
252
164
112
101
1995
Edgar Martinez
sea
744
445
7
292
306
187
137
114
1996
Mo Vaughn
bos
833
479
3
351
316
202
171
144
1997
Larry Walker
col
849
501
36
312
300
250
168
131
1998
Barry Bonds
sfo
836
474
31
331
305
242
165
124
2000
Todd Helton
col
913
512
8
393
323
245
197
148
2001
Barry Bonds
sfo
890
597
14
279
342
239
172
137
2002
Barry Bonds
sfo
799
529
11
259
356
201
131
111
2003
Todd Helton
col
793
480
4
309
322
212
142
117

Carlos Delgado
tor
793
465
3
325
300
184
162
147
2004
Barry Bonds
sfo
829
544
8
277
376
213
140
100
2005
David Ortiz
bos
827
465
4
358
282
210
185
150
2006
Ryan Howard
phi
814
500
1
313
299
196
170
149
2007
Alex Rodriguez
nyy
426
246
11
169
144
117
88
77


In lieu of a genuine analysis of all this data, I'd like to point out just a couple of things. One--the best BP total in the past 50 years was Todd Helton's 913, in 2000 (which, strangely enough, was the first year I ever put BP stats online). Two--ARod's current total of 426 in 75 games puts him on pace for 920 Bases Produced this year. Will he make it past 913 by the end of September? Stay tuned.

-Steve

1 comments:

Liam "Get a Brain" Moran said...

Glad to hear of all this progress you've made. It sounds like I'll be seeing you around the FLB cellar pretty soon, too.

And I can state for a fact that you are very well liked and respected by every student that I know who has done research or had a class with you.